Wales Elects 2007

Shiny and New

As promised below, we've now started up a new blog. Picking up where Wales Elects 2007 left off, Assembly Notes will cover all the Welsh political news and the best of the Welsh blogosphere. It's still a work in progress but come and have a look...

The End...

With a name like Wales Elects 2007 this site was always going to have a limited shelf life and now that Wales has (sort of) elected it is a natural time for things here to be wrapped-up. However, I am currently developing a new site along similar lines and will post the details of it in the next few days.

In the meantime here are a number of posts that have caught my eye over the past few days:

• Alwyn Ap Huw on the marginality of constituencies, the possiblity of another election and the idea of a directly elected First Minister.
• Conservative candidate for Ceredigion Trefor Jones on the end of his campaign and the problem with leaflets.
• Ordivicius on Plaid's broad church.
• Conservative leader Nick Bourne AM on Letwin's shift from an econocentric paradigm to a sociocentric paradigm.
• Luke Young on the rise of the BNP and on the Lib Dem disharmony.
• David Davies MP on the failure of PR.
• Leighton Andrews AM on why he is unimpressed with the Welsh blogosphere, Blamerbell on why he is wrong and Chanticleer on the withering of the Welsh blog.
• Arsembly writes the obits for those who didn't make it back.
• New AM Bethan Jenkins on 'coming back down to earth' after the election.
• Former AM Glyn Davies prepares to take on Lembit in Montgomeryshire.
• Nicholas Michael Morgan calls for Janet Ryder AM to make way for Dafydd Wigley.
• Blamerbell looks back at the quotes from the election campaign and at the prospects for a coalition.

Assembly Election Final Result

Seats:

• Labour 26 (-3)
• Plaid 15 (+3)
• Conservatives 12 (+1)
• Lib Dems 6 (-)
• Ind 1 (-1)

Constituency Vote:

• Labour 32.2% (-7.8)
• Plaid 22.4% (+1.2)
• Conservatives 22.4% (+2.4)
• Lib Dems 14.8% (-0.5)

Regional Vote:

• Labour 29.6%(-6.9)
• Plaid 21.0% (+1.3)
• Conservatives 21.6% (+2.3)
• Lib Dems 11.7% (-1)

South Wales West and South Wales Central Results

South Wales Central:

• David Melding (Con)
• Andrew Davies (Con)
• Leanne Wood (Plaid)
• Christopher Franks (Plaid_

South Wales West:

• Bethan Jenkins (Plaid)
• Dai Lloyd (Plaid)
• Peter Black (Lib Dem)
• Alun Cairns (Con)

Mid and West Wales Regional Seats

The Conservatives' constituency gains in Pembrokeshire have meant that they have lost two regional seats in Mid and West Wales - Lisa Francis and blog supremo Glyn Davies losing out. New AMs for the region are:

• Nick Bourne (Con)
• Alun Daives (Lab)
• Joyce Watson (Lab)
• Nerys Evans (Plaid)

Welsh Assembly Results Thread

Vale of Glamorgan - Labour hold (just)

Bridgend - Labour hold

Ogmore - Labour hold

Clwyd West - *Conservative Gain*

Aberconwy - Plaid hold

Clwyd South - Labour hold.

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire - *Conservative Gain*

Cardiff North - *Conservative Gain*

Wrexham - *Labour Gain*

Rhondda - Labour hold.

Brecon and Radnorshire - Lib Dem hold.

Preseli Pembrokeshire - *Conservative Gain*

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr - Plaid hold.

Cardiff West - Labour hold.

Gower - Labour hold 

Newport East - Labour hold

Torfaen - Lab hold

Alyn and Deeside - Lab hold.

Ynys Mon - Plaid hold.

Newport West - Labour hold.

Monmouth - Con hold.

Delyn - Labour hold.

Llanelli - *Plaid Gain*

Ceredigion - Plaid hold.

Cardiff Central - Lib Dem hold.

Neath - Labour hold.

Caerphilly - Labour hold (Ron Davies 6k, PC 7k, JC 8.9)

Dwyfor - Plaid hold.

Islwyn - Labour hold

Blaenau Gwent - Trish Law (Independent) hold

Cynon Valley - Labour hold.

Swansea East - Labour hold.

Merthyr Tydfil - Labour hold.

Montgomeryshire - Lib Dem hold.

Swansea West - Labour hold.

Pontypridd - Labour hold.

Cardiff South and Penarth - Labour hold.

Vale of Clwyd - Lab hold (just!)

Arfon - Plaid hold

Aberavon - Labour hold

South Wales East Regional List

Plaid have regained the regional seat that they lost to the Tories in South Wales East in 2003. Conservative Laura Ann Jones has lost her seat and Mohammed Ashgar has become the first ethnic minority AM at the Senedd. The full allocation is:

• Mohammed Ashgar (Plaid)
• Jocelyn Davies (Plaid)
• Mike German (Lib Dem)
• William Graham (Conservative)

As You Were in North Wales

The regional results for North Wales are in and not much has changed - the AMs for the area are:

• Brynle Williams (Con)
• Mark Isherwood (Con)
• Eleanor Burnham (Lib Dem)
• Janet Ryder (Plaid)

But no place for Plaid's Dafydd Wigley...

*Tory Gain in Carms West*

WOW!! A phenomenally close result in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. The Tories' Angela Burns has been elected with a majority of 98. 250 votes between 1st and 3rd!!

Alwyn Ap Huw: Dwyfor Meirionnydd the Most Significant Result in 100 Years

Nationalist blogger Alwyn ap Huw is disappointed that the result in Dwyfor Meirionnydd hasn't received more coverage:

"The result in Dwyfor Meirionnydd might actually be the most significant result in Welsh political history in the last 100 years. This may be the first time in 100 years that a party other than Labour has the safest seat in Wales. A significant turning point in Welsh politics that can't be dismissed as "expected"

Read the post - here

*Tories Take Cardiff North*

Conservative Jonathan Morgan has won Cardiff North with a stonking majority of 4844. A good performance by Labour's Sophie Howe kept up Labour's vote but the Tories were too strong.

Whispers and Rumours Thread

02.45AM - Apparently 11 (eleven) votes in it in the Vale of Clwyd!!!

02.50AM - BNP polling well on the regional list in North Wales.

03.10AM - Labour may lose its deposit in Ceredigion.

03.40AM - Tories to win Carmarthen West and S Pembs

04.00AM - Recount in the Rhondda.

04.15AM - Lib Dems likely to end up on 7 seats overall.

04.55AM - According to election expert Prof. Roger Scully of Aberystwyth the BNP are set to be the fifth party on the regional list.

04.55AM - Recount going on in the Vale of Glamorgan - but the word is that Jane Hutt is behind the Conservative's Gordon Kemp.

*Labour Gain Wrexham*

The Assembly has just lost its Deputy Presiding Officer. Independent John Marek has been beaten by his former assistant Lesley Griffiths.

Tories Win Preseli Pembrokeshire

Conservative Paul Davies has just taken Preseli Pembrokeshire from Labour's Tamsin Dunwoody - again with a pretty thumping majority of 3205.

A pattern seems to be developing that where Labour are losing, they are losing hard - the same seems to be the case in Cardiff North where Jonathan Morgan is said to be 'romping home'.

Labour to Gain Wrexham?

As reported earlier Wrexham could be the one bit of good news for Labour in Wales this morning. Labour activists are claiming that they have won the seat with a majority of 1300.

Plaid Gain Llanelli!

Plaid have won Llanelli with a whopping majority of 3863!

Reflections from the Socialist Fortress

Labour blogger and Blaenau Gwent activist Luke Young looks back at the campaign and Trish Law's triumph.

Lib Dems Winning There?: Newport East

**Pinch of Salt Warning**

Rumours are growing stronger that the Lib Dems may be doing well in Newport East on the back of a very small turnout. I'm reliably informed by Prof. Roger Scully that to win the seat the Lib Dems need a massive swing of 14.25%.

2.10AM UPDATE: Lib Dems now not winning here - party sources saying that they now expect to finish second.

First Result!!! - Labour Hold Islwyn

The first result of the night is in:

Islwyn

• Kevin Etheridge (Ind.) - 6,665
• Labour - 8,883
• Lib Dem - 1,135
• Plaid Cymru - 5,084
• Conservatives - 1,797

Irene James re-elected.

As Things Stand

Its 1.45am as I type this and the results are about to trickle in - here's a brief summary of things as they stand:

Labour look set to lose in Cardiff North (Con), Clwyd West (Con), Llanelli (Plaid), Aberconwy (Plaid/Con) and are looking like they are in bother in Delyn (Con), Newport East (Lib Dem), Newport West (Con), Bridgend (Con). Would be compensated by couple of regional seats. Look to be safe in Swansea West and may cling on to Carmathen West and South Pembrokeshire. May retake Wrexham from independent.

Elsewhere, Plaid look to have held Ceredigion and Ieuan Wyn Jones is sounding confident in Ynys Mon.

Implications for list seats are difficult at this stage, turnout also up a little.

Labour Vote Collapse in Blaenau Gwent

Welsh blogger and Labour Blaenau Gwent activist Luke Young is saying that the Labour vote in the seat may have collapsed - read it here

Labour Concede Llanelli to Plaid

BBC's Vaughan Roderick is reporting that Labour have accepted defeat in Llanelli.

Plaid Looking Safe in Ceredigion

It looks like Elin Jones will see off a strong Lib Dem push Ceredigion and will retain her seat. Chaos continues in Newport - the BBC are reporting that Labour are looking glum at the count (fighting the Tories in Newport West and Lib Dems in Newport East)...

A Ray of Sunshine for Labour?

There are indications that there may be one good news story for Labour tonight - gaining Wrexham from independent John Marek.

Tory Confidence, Lib Dem Landslides and Other Bits

Tories are claiming sucess in Cardiff North, Clwyd West and Preseli but are less sure in Aberconwy. The Lib Dems are saying that Jenny Randerson has taken over 50% of the votes in Cardiff Central and have made significant progress in Cardiff South and Penarth (but only in pockets) - more cautious on Newport East. Trish Law looking good (electorally) in Blaenau Gwent.